The Dragon Portfolio - implemented 01 Oct 2020. To summarize this, he looks at a small set of asset classes and how they have performed over the last 100 years. If you haven't read the paper, I would highly recommend doing so here. Chris Cole: Thanks Tracy. The asset classes that he goes through are gold, equities, fixed income, long volatility, and commodity trend. What is the roughly right rather than precisely wrong approach to constructing a 100-year portfolio? I will be summarizing a paper titled The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent written by Chris Cole, a hedge fund manager and financial historian, where he constructs a “Dragon” portfolio that is capable of going through any type of economic cycle and will preserve your wealth. So, when we were sent the latest research piece by Chris Cole of Artemis, we dug in (you can read the ... and title of this piece – the allegory of the hawk and serpent, but it was the subtitle which caught our eye: How to Grow and Protect Wealth for 100 years. Though not technically a book, I would be remiss not to include this paper along with the other papers on long volatility and tail risk from Chris Cole at Artemis Capital Management. Christopher Cole, CFA Littlefield Building 106 East 6th Street, Suite 650 Austin, TX 78701 Phone (512) 467-4735 info@artemiscm.com “Allegory of the Prisoner’s Dilemma” by Andy Diaz Hope & Laurel Roth. And during the same time frame, equities went down in value. Chris Cole is the founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management. Chris Cole suggests a simple approach of taking a short or long position on an ETF tracking commodity prices based on whether the current price is above or below the 50 day moving average. To download the full article published in January 2020, click here." The Hawk and the Serpent of Finance (w/ Danielle DiMartino-Booth & Chris Cole) CHRISTOPHER COLE: Well, what breaks that cycle? In the grand finale to The Big Picture, Jason Buck speaks to Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital. Put succinctly, the phases of the Serpent-Hawk cycle are: growth, stagnation, corruption, revolution, and regeneration. MacroVoices #206 Chris Cole: Optimizing portfolio construction for changing times . The report, “The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent” by Chris Cole, posed the question: How would you invest your money if you could not change your allocation for 100 years? Chris Cole [of Artemis Capital] is, without a doubt, one of the smartest people in the business. I choose a narrower scope and present a portfolio focused on just the next 20 years as the current Serpent era ends and a Hawk era begins. If you haven't read the paper, I would highly recommend doing so here. It's great to be back on the show. The dragon portfolio is a portfolio construction that was presented by Christopher Cole in his 2020 paper “The allegory of the hawk and serpent - How to build a portfolio that lasts 100 years”. The underlying idea of the allegory is a conflict of opposites – the Hawk is the enlightened mind and the Serpent is the “lower self”. The paper detailed how investors could protect and build their wealth over a 100 year period. As Chris wrote in his 2020 report, "to thrive, we must embody the cosmic duality between the hawk and the serpent." Outside our offices here, we have a peregrine falcon that flies around. And this comes to the image in the paper of the allegory of the hawk and serpent. Chris Cole from Artemis Capital Management points this out in a terrific piece of research entitled The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent (h/t Grants Interest Rate Observer). Cole and Booth provide viewers with the tools to traverse the "incremental death of alpha," and markets that are increasingly subject to the amplified volatility of increasingly passive investments. Erik and Chris discuss: “The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent” Is 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy really the proven long term solution? See RealVision interview of Danielle DeMartino-Booth with Artemis Capital CIO, Chris Cole, click here. Filmed on July 27, 2020. Chris Cole, the author of the Allegory of The Hawk and The Serpent, breaks things down into two cycles of about 20 years. To download the full article published in January 2020, click here." Why would someone want to build a 100-year portfolio in the first place? For access to Chris’ 2020 report, “The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent: How to Grow and Preserve Wealth for 100 Years,” click here: I follow Chris Cole closely and his writings, especially the Dragon Portfolio concept since it is an interesting twist on the Permanent Portfolio construct which I use for my own SAA. I am trying to build my own ‘Dragon Portfolio’ as outlined in Chris Cole’s whitepaper titled ‘THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT.’ Commodity trend following is a big part of this portfolio. For starters, the historical performance of the 60/40 portfolio is considerably less robust than it first appears. You know, my paper, ‘The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent’ released last year in January, and the follow-up to that paper that chronicled how those ideas performed in 2020, that was just released, really make the case, and I think a very important case, that this is vital if you want to profit and be able to survive periods of secular change. The strategy is not called "The Hawk and the Serpent" it is called the Dragon Portfolio. He highlights: Unauthorized reproduction prohibited. In his recent report titled the “Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent,” he outlines a case for a special type of portfolio (The Dragon Portfolio); one that will stand the test of time. As I was taking notes, I felt there was a question I needed to answer first. Chris Cole released a paper last year called "The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent." Reproduced with permission of artists. In his paper, The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent, Chris Cole of Artemis Capital Management, took the long view. Chris Cole suggests a simple approach of taking a short or long position on an ETF tracking commodity […] See RealVision interview of Danielle DeMartino-Booth with Artemis Capital CIO, Chris Cole, click here. One is the Serpent and the other the Hawk. The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent is a philosophic map to understanding the generational cycle of wealth creation, destruction, and rebirth to guide your investment decisions and protect your prosperity. We discuss how a series of small bets can lead to disproportionally large non-linear payoffs, in both life and markets. In 1929, during the Hawk period from '29 to '46, treasuries didn't do much at all. Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cole to MacroVoices. Chris Cole released a paper last year called "The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent." ‎Show Macro Voices, Ep MacroVoices #206 Chris Cole: Optimizing portfolio construction for changing times - Feb 13, 2020 ‎MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cole to the show to discuss his latest article "The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent", the law of cosmic duality in investing, and the role of long-vol and commodity trends following have in dragon portfolio & more. In “The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent,” hedge fund manager Chris Cole set out to answer this question by taking a look at the history of the economic cycles the stock market goes through. Then, from '47 to '63, we had a serpent period. He explains the allegory of the Hawk and Serpent and breaks down the construction of his 100-year portfolio. Chris: Absolutely. The Hawk and Serpent are hidden in plain sight on the Great Seal of the United States of America, the Coat of Arms of Mexico, and have roots in Greek, Egyptian, Indian, and Aztec mythology.. https://thefelderreport.com/2020/02/19/chris-cole-on-appreciating-risk The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent – Artemis Capital Management. Feedback in: Hi Michael, I am trying to build my own ‘Dragon Portfolio’ as outlined in Chris Cole’s whitepaper titled ‘THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT.’ Commodity trend following is a big part of this portfolio. I recently read Chris Cole’s excellent research paper, The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent: How To Grow And Protect Wealth For 100 Years. Well, I wrote a research paper that came out this January called the “Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent.” And I posed this question to the reader: Imagine you have the opportunity to grant your family great wealth and prosperity over 100 years, but it’s subject to one final choice. The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent is a philosophic map to understanding the generational cycle of wealth creation, destruction, and rebirth to guide your investment decisions and protect your prosperity. Download MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cole to the show to discuss his latest article "The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent", the law of cosmic duality in investing, and the role of long-vol and commodity trends following have in dragon portfolio & more. Chris’s specialty is in long volatility strategies, setting up portfolios that will benefit from significant change and volatility in markets. The paper detailed how investors could protect and build their wealth over a 100 year period. Allegory being that the dragon tames both hawk and serpent. One of the best recent papers on investing is Chris Cole’s “Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent”. Artemis Capital Management, LP Frost Bank Tower | 401 Congress Ave, Suite 3250 | Austin, Texas 78701 2020-02-13. And I was thinking about this. So far, we’ve seen four: Secular Decline, Secular Rebirth, Secular Stagnation and Secular Boom. Chris Cole uses this allegory to present ideas for a 100-Year portfolio that can profit in all the phases of the Serpent-Hawk cycle. Chris is one of the sharpest players in the volatility space and has made his name by playing risks and opportunities that others can’t see. 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