They are still losing support to a surging Alliance and a resilient SDLP. While the DUP was significantly ahead in both the 2017 Assembly election and the 2019 local election, the UUP is stronger at local council level which could also help. The Greens did not run in the 2019 general election, and they did well in the local election, their vote is up slightly in polling since then, but a well balanced Alliance vote between two candidates could make this race quite close. Possibilities (2/5): DUP (2), Sinn Féin (1), SDLP (1), Alliance (2), UUP (2), TUV (1), Safe (3/5): Sinn Féin (1), SDLP (1), DUP (1). Alliance has a very good chance of gaining a second seat, which would most likely come from the SDLP. However, local government elections are not happening in Scotland until Thursday May 5, 2022. Alliance looks very likely to gain a seat, after having 0.8 quotas in 2019 and finishing third. While the SDLP have an outside chance of a third seat, the main intrigue here will come from three parties that make electoral breakthroughs in the 2019 local election: Alliance, Aontú and People Before Profit. I have looked at each below, considering which seats are definitely safe and which will be competitive. Competitive (3/5): While the UUP had a disappointing result in the 2019 general election, they are nonetheless likely to hold on to their seat, especially as Alan Chambers had a long career as an independent councillor before becoming a UUP MLA. Competitive (2/5): Alliance (2), TUV (1), DUP (2), SDLP (1), UUP (2), DUP (3), 2017 result: DUP (2), Sinn Féin (1), UUP (1), SDLP (1). If the TUV miss out their transfers could save the second DUP candidate, but the DUP need enough votes in the early stages to stay ahead of the TUV. As in October, I still think most of the UUP’s 10 seats should be safe due to how many more vulnerable seats were lost in 2017, the opposite position to Sinn Féin. Possibilities (3/5): SDLP (1), Alliance (1), DUP (2), Sinn Féin (2), 2017 result: DUP (1), SDLP (1), Alliance (1), Sinn Féin (1), Green (1), Safe (3/5): DUP (1), SDLP (1), Alliance (1). The DUP will hope to gain enough UUP transfers for a second seat, but I don’t think unionist candidates will have two quotas between them. Competitive (2/5): With the SDLP vote up nearly 1% from 2017, and the Sinn Féin vote down nearly 4%, the SDLP should defend their two seats here quite easily and have an outside chance of a third seat. When that’s added to the pressure that COVID has put on the Treasury, we can be sure … Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland, the 90 members of the Northern Ireland Assembly will be elected the following year – on May 5 2022. Firstly, while the DUP was safely ahead of the UUP in both the 2017 Assembly election and the 2019 general election, the UUP did particularly well in the 2019 local election, gaining a DUP seat in Slieve Croob. The next assembly election in Northern Ireland is scheduled for May 2022. The challenge for the TUV is to gain enough DUP votes, as well as former UKIP votes in 2016 and 2017, to take the second DUP seat, while Alliance will need to balance their vote effectively and gain enough non-unionist votes to stay ahead. The result here will depend on who is eliminated and in one order. UUP, PUP and TUV, while Alliance should do well on transfers from other parties such as the Greens and any potential SDLP surplus. View all posts by jackarmstrong95. Their one Assembly seat should be safe in West Belfast, and while they are likely to be competitive in Foyle, they are probably not going to be looking at Assembly seats anywhere else. Like Newry and Armagh this could be close and TUV transfers could decide between the two main unionist parties. The Green Party will probably improve their vote in line with their council gains in 2019, although transfers from smaller unionist parties from the PUP and TUV will favour the UUP. If Alliance wins a seat, whether the DUP or SDLP lose a seat will depend entirely on unionist versus nationalist turnout and also which side transfers more effectively to other parties from the same bloc. A third Alliance or DUP seat is also possible but neither are likely to be close enough to three quotas in order for all their candidates to stay ahead. The Liberal Democrats competed in 542 seats, and United for EU competed in 108 seats. Northern Ireland Assembly elections usually take place every five years. Members are elected under the single transferable vote form of proportional representation (STV-PR) In turn, the Assembly selects most of the ministers of the Northern Ireland Executive using the principle of power-sharing under the D'Hondt method to ensure that Northern Ireland's largest voting blocs, unionists and Irish nationalists, both participate in governing the region. Competitive (2/5): The DUP could face a close challenge for their second seat. Neither unionist parties are likely to gain a seat, and although the TUV will poll well they will probably not be close enough to last until the later rounds. It is possible that the TUV could become the largest party in North Antrim in terms of first preference votes, paralleling the TUV’s impressive success in Bannside in the 2019 local election when the TUV won two seats on first preference votes alone. Possibilities (2/5): Alliance (1), TUV (1), Claire Sugden (1), DUP (2), 2017 result: Sinn Féin (3), DUP (1), UUP (1). Alliance had 1.6 quotas in the 2019 general election, almost twice as many as the UUP’s 0.9 quotas, making an Alliance gain from the UUP a strong possibility. Also, while several SDLP seats were extremely closely won in 2017, they very narrowly lost out on several more, reiterating the challenges facing the party next year. Your union Elections. Alliance would need to balance their vote between two candidates in order to remain ahead of the SDLP, then gain enough SDLP transfers to remain ahead of the second UUP candidate. Alliance will also poll well, and might have a chance of gaining a seat if they can balance their two candidates ahead of the Greens, but that will be difficult. With elections … The TUV has polled well here at council level before, winning the only non-nationalist seat in Benbradagh in 2011 and 2014 before losing it to the DUP in 2019. Change ), You are commenting using your Facebook account. 2021 will be the most important year since 1921 for Northern Ireland The North will mark its centenary at a time when nationalists sense the union is doomed Wed, Dec 30, 2020, 00:24. The next assembly election is due to take place in May 2022. Having said that, the SDLP vote will be a lot stronger in the Assembly election, and they will receive the majority of Sinn Féin transfers making it a relatively close race. Change ), Sinn Féin: 24% (-3.9% from AE17, no change from Oct), Alliance: 18% (+8.9% from AE17, +2% from Oct), SDLP: 13% (+1.1% from AE17, no change from Oct), UUP: 12% (-0.9% from AE17, no change from Oct), Green: 2% (-0.3% from AE17, -1% from Oct), People Before Profit: 1% (-0.8% from AE17, -1% from Oct), Independent/Other: 1% (-2.7% from AE17, no change from Oct). Therefore the DUP are more likely to defend their second seat, unless there is a significant drop in the unionist vote or unionists fail to transfer enough to other unionists (this happened to the SDLP in the 1998 Assembly election when a majority of Sinn Féin transfers did not go to their second candidate who narrowly missed out to a fourth unionist). Since devolution in 1999, the Northern Ireland assembly’s STV system has consistently been the most proportional in the UK, with an average disproportionality score of 3.8. Alliance could also challenge the DUP for a second seat, the DUP had 2.2 quotas in 2017 but with their vote down over 5% they probably won’t have two quotas on the first round, although a strong TUV vote will transfer to them. MORE : London mayoral election: Who … The only real chance of change is Alliance gaining a second seat, following their Westminster victory in 2019, from the DUP or Green Party. Having won eight seats in 2017 on 9.1%, Alliance has a good chance of doubling their number of MLAs, raising questions about the sustainability of many aspects of the Assembly’s institutions such as community designations if the centre ground continues to grow. With Sinn Féin down 4% across Northern Ireland, they are probably not going to regain their second seat lost in 2017, which would be good news for the SDLP and Alliance. Competitive (1/5): The only vulnerable seat here is Sinn Féin’s third seat. While SDLP transfers favoured Alliance over Sinn Féin in the 2019 European election, in this specific contest in North Antrim it will be impossible to tell how they will go. Possibilities (1/5): Sinn Féin (4), SDLP (1), DUP (1), Alliance (1), 2017 result: DUP (2), UUP (2), Alliance (1), Safe (3/5): DUP (1), UUP (1), Alliance (1). Competitive (1/5): The final seat here is likely to be very close between incumbent independent unionist Claire Sugden and Alliance. ( Log Out /  Northern Ireland assembly elections are scheduled for 5 May 2022. The Greens are in a much stronger position than 2017, with three local councillors and Clare Bailey now party leader. Tagged in. Possibilities (1/5): Alliance (1), Independent (1), UUP (1), DUP (3), Sinn Féin (2), TUV (1), 2017 result: Sinn Féin (3), DUP (1), UUP (1). The one positive result is the remarkable popularity of Health Minister and former UUP leader Robin Swann, but this is not translating into support for the UUP. But if I had to give a rough margin of how each party is looking in 2022 in terms of seats, I would say: PhD student at Queen's University Belfast researching STV elections in Northern Ireland since 1973. Possibilities (2/5): Sinn Féin (1), Alliance (2), DUP (2), TUV (1), SDLP (1), UUP (2). Alternatively, if the SDLP can improve their vote and receive enough Sinn Féin transfers (as well as some from unionists), they could possibly stay ahead of one of the Alliance candidates and receive enough of their transfers to take the third DUP seat. ( Log Out /  Latest news: 2019 Westminster results now available for each constituency - and as a special bonus, we now have a section for Westminster results from 1922 to 1949! Regional elections must be held by May 2022 but could come sooner if tensions continue between the DUP and Sinn Féin. The SDLP also have a good chance, they will begin behind the DUP but should do well on transfers from Alliance and Aontú, although their only real chance is getting ahead of the DUP which is quite unlikely. Sinn Féin had over a quota in 2017 so even with a decrease of several percent they would still be competitive. 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