There are 34 seats up for election in 2022, 14 currently held by Democrats and 20 by Republicans. House Control 2022 Bets on which party will control the House after Nov 8, 2022 elections. DeSantis has a 69¢ lead over Val Demings, who moved into a tie for second on Thursday at 11¢ with Fried. But, Biden has signed the largest number of executive actions of any president in history, most undoing actions by his predecessor, former President Donald Trump. Second position is occupied by Rep. Conor Lamb (D-PA) at just 15¢. Market Pulse: Arauz! Market Data at 7:30 a.m. EDT: Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021? Ron DeSantis ® for a third day in a row. Will either party control both the Senate and House in 2022? Market Data at 5 a.m. EDT: Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year? The contract for “24.6% to 27.9%” has been in the lead since the market opened on April 22, and sits at 66¢, while “28% or higher” is at only 6¢. For what it’s worth Predictit has the odds of Repub control of Senate in 2022 at 65%. Haley and De Santis have both been shedding share price — dipping 5¢ and 4¢ — respectively. After MacDonough’s ruling, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said that the minimum wage increase will still be included in the bill when the House votes on it later today, leaving it to the Senate to remove the language. PHOTO: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC SA-BY 2.0. The hiccup for the legislation will likely come in the Senate, where Democrats plan to use a process called “budget reconciliation” in order to pass ARP with a simple majority (read: without Republican support), but they will need to keep every single Democrat on board (see the tribulations of a 50-50 Senate above). PHOTO: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC SA-BY 2.0, Biden Celebrates a Historic Week, But Looks to Avoid Obama Mistakes. There have already been delays in getting this legislation to the Senate floor, mainly getting a green light from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to ensure the bill is in compliance with Senate rules regarding “budget reconciliation.” This would allow Democrats to pass it with a simple majority and without Republican support. North Carolina state Sen. Jeff Jackson (D) and Rep. Matt Walker (R-NC) lead their respective primary races. Market Data at 8 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination? There are 34 seats up in 2022, of which 20 are held by the GOP. The market doesn’t seem to reflect sentiments about the nursing home coverup, which broke on Jan. 28 — almost a month before the market opened — and has mostly been overtaken by the sexual harassment claims in the news. It’s Friday and here are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on: The Biden Administration goes back-and-forth on the number of refugees to authorize and receives swift backlash spanning the ideological spectrum in return. “Never! Sec. But they are more confident that the vice president will be present in the Senate often to break a few legislative ties. On the House side, traders still believe that Republicans will win back control, as they have for the last 90 days of the market, by a margin of more than 40¢ as of close on Thursday. I’m laying out a three shift schedule,” he said. In the House, traders are predicting history will repeat itself. This week, we’ve added new trader-submitted markets on: the number of Senate votes to confirm Brenda Mallory as CEQ Chair, Julie Su as Deputy Secretary of Labor, Janet McCabe as EPA Deputy Administrator and Rohit Chopra as CFPB Director; who will win the Omaha and Forth Worth mayoral elections this year; if Biden will nominate a Director of ICE by May 31; and the expected margin of victory in the Peruvian presidential runoff election. Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO), who has not said if he will run for the seat, is a distant third at 11¢. After a back-and-forth and heavy criticism from members of his party, traders are confident — at 92¢ — that Biden will increase the number of refugees allowed into the country to “62,500 or more,” which is the number he originally pledged. But in order to hamper or remove the filibuster, Democrats have to first convince their own caucus that this is the right path to their objectives. Both chambers flipping to Republican control is at 31¢, Republicans flipping only the House is at 26¢ and Republicans flipping the Senate is at just 10¢. Here’s a taste of what you’ll hear this week: “It looked as though the market responded directly to the release of the podcast. Traders are giving “49 or fewer” votes top billing at 78¢ entering trading today. It’s Friday and here are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on: President Joe Biden is eagerly moving on to his next legislative priority — infrastructure — but the way that debate is unfolding could make the Democrats’ ability to hold onto their slim majorities in Congress in 2022 even more difficult. 2022 US Senate Elections But that all changed and the contract dipped to 12¢ before closing at 15¢ as Democrats will now have to pass separate legislation that will likely be subject to a Republican filibuster. How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by March 31? It went from like 21 up to 30 like three separate times one day, and so I as just riding the waves.”, The Prediction Trade podcast: Master Class on the Masters & Betting Belarus. Senate primaries in key states are heating up and everyone has their eyes on the prize: control of the Senate. In recent polling, 76 percent of voters supported the stimulus bill, including 60 percent of Republicans. Photo: US Air Force Staff Sgt. Will Progressives Get Their Wish in Court-Packing Debate? Now, Democrats are hopeful that their de-facto Senate majority will spell success. Democrats currently control the lower chamber 218 to … It’s Friday and here are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on: First, radically different tales of two Florida politicians — Florida Gov. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind ... said he believes Republicans have a “great chance” to win back the House majority in the 2022 midterm elections. I t is never preferable to be in the minority party in a legislative body. President Trump won the Tar Heel State by just over a point and Sen. Tom Tillis (R-NC) defeated his Democrat challenger Cal Cunningham by only two points. Market Pulse: Despite the growing scandals, traders have stayed bullish on Cuomo’s chances of making it through the end of the year as governor. On the Democratic side, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), urged his caucus to find Republican colleagues they can team up with on legislation where they might be able to find bipartisan agreement, while simultaneously circulating informational materials laying out potential maneuvers to reform the filibuster rule. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet. The problem for 60 Minutes is that they didn’t have any evidence to back up this “pay-to-play” claim, and that once the full video of the DeSantis remarks that were used in the report were made public it was obvious to everyone (except CBS apparently) that their “deceptive editing” tactics were problematic. John L. Dorman. 2022 Senate Governors 2020 Presidential Governors Senate House Democratic Primary Republican Primary Blank Maps Senate Governors County ... House of Commons Current Parliament Historic Counties Global World European Union USA / Canada YAPms is … Market Data at 8 a.m. EDT: Will the District of Columbia become a US state in 2021? It’s Friday and here are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on: The status of the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico is back on the table in the House, and the outcome of that debate could have a lasting impact on the make-up of Congress. But when you’re in power, it’s not enough to get caught trying to deliver. With a market high of 14¢ in January, its been gradually sliding and landed at 7¢ to close out this week. The market hasn’t gone above 34¢ since the day it opened, and hit at a market low of 14¢ during trading on Thursday. Let’s take a look. Ron DeSantis ® has gained grassroots popularity among Republicans across the country for his handling of the COVID pandemic. Either I get a bunch of money, or I get to watch the Dems cry. Two other nominations — those of former California Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D) for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and Rep. Deb Haaland (D-NM) to lead Interior — are running into opposition from Senate Republicans for their past work and so-called extreme views. Market Data at 5 a.m. EDT: How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update? 60 Minutes received a lot of blowback from Republicans across the country, but also from Florida Democrats. Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary? This is the same group of senators who came together late in 2020 to put together a $900 billion pandemic relief bill just before the end of the year. Find them all here. Newsom? Opponents — mainly Republicans — argue that this legislation is a partisan effort to create new congressional seats in Democrat-majority areas in order to solidify a majority in 2022 that will push their progressive agenda forward. Photo: Office of Governor Brian P. Kemp / CC BY-SA 4.0. PredictIt Market Probabilities Current as of Map Timestamp Updated every four hours, this is an electoral map based on the then-current PredictIt market odds for the 2020 presidential election. The 90-day chart in this market sees a small change in trajectory favoring the GOP in the month of March, but has been otherwise steady since early January. MARIANIQUE SANTOS/PUBLIC DOMAIN. Biden’s approval ratings, which hover in the low 50s, suggest that most Americans are on board with his broad agenda and the way he’s managing his administration. Collage of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). Since coming to power, Xi has consolidated his power and centralized policymaking authority under his control to an extent not seen perhaps since Mao Zedong. He secured his first major legislative victory with the passage of his $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan. In Alabama, Brooks is the traders favored candidate by some margin in the market tracking who will be the Republican Senate nominee, at 69¢ — 45¢ higher than the next potential candidate. Photo: THE EPOCH TIMES / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0. Market Pulse: The 60-vote filibuster isn’t going anywhere. Vice President Pence placed second with 12 percent, while Haley was third at 6 percent. Pence turned down an opportunity to speak at CPAC this year. Former Missouri Gov. PHOTO: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0, Ron DeSantis’ COVID Response Wins Over Republicans. Encouraging his caucus to team up with the opposition party is a way to bolster Democrat’s defenses against potential midterm attacks that they steamrolled a far-left agenda through Congress without an attempt at bipartisanship. So far, Democrat leadership has remained notably silent on Puerto Rico, as the two bills divide members of their caucus. Former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are early favorites to win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. On Hu Chunhua, traders also give him high hopes of being selected to the PBSC, which is at 78¢. Market Pulse: Traders have consistently held that Republicans will hold on to Burr’s Senate seat and win the general election. One other thing they could do is change or repeal the filibuster rule, but they need all 50 Democrat senators (plus Vice President Kamala Harris) for that and still don’t seem to have the support of moderate Sens. President Joe Biden talks with Vice President Kamala Harris in the Oval Office. Then we briefly head down to Florida, where the Democratic challengers in the governor’s race are starting to stack up. The market for Peru’s presidential election consists of 13 candidates, including the top six based on a poll from March 31: Yonhy Lescano, Hernando de Soto, Rafael López Aliaga, Verónika Mendoza, George Forsyth and Keiko Fujimori. Senate Control 2022 Bets on which party will control the Senate after Nov 8, 2022 elections. Last Friday, we launched markets on who will be the governor of California at the end of this year, automatic voter registration, the number of Senate votes to confirm Polly Trottenberg as Dep. Eric Greitens ®, who launched his campaign on Fox News on Tuesday, promising to be a staunch ally of Trump. Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election? Combine that with Biden’s plan to pay for it mostly by increasing taxes on American corporations, and Republicans are calling Biden’s bluff on bipartisanship. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Angus King (I-ME), who caucuses with the Democrats, Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Krysten Sinema (D-AZ), who hasn’t weighed in at all. Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Will Puerto Rico become a US state in 2021? Biden Administration and campaign promise related markets continued. REP details. Their donation to DeSantis was also neither illegal nor unusual as many large companies donate to the political campaigns of both major parties. In North Carolina, where incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) announced that he won’t seek re-election, traders’ confidence that another Republican will win the seat has been increasing through February and March. We also launched the following markets today: 2022 House control by party, Fox News withdraw a projection of a presidential winner; Nancy Pelosi re-elected Speaker of the House; and 2024 presidential bids by Mike Pence and Kamala Harris. Historically, the party that holds the White House loses some ground in the midterm elections, and Democrats don’t have a lot of ground they can lose. That market was pretty quiet, and the day we released the podcast those ‘yes’ shares went from 47 to about 59 cents, a 10 to 12 cent move, directly as a result of Tasha Kheiriddin’s call. Note, at the time of writing Lescano led de Soto, 43¢ to 32¢. Market Data at 6:30 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election? Could Florida’s Next Governor be a Democrat? What is going on with Shalanda Young at OMB? GOP's 'Pennant Porch' in 2022 could shape House control In baseball, games are won on the field. Two other markets ask which party will control each chamber of Congress after the 2022 midterms. Whether former President Donald Trump pursues the Republican nomination again in 2024 or not is still unknown, but he told Fox News on Tuesday that he hasn’t ruled it out and will wait to see the results of the 2022 midterms before making his decision. Republicans generally feel that the mainstream media is biased against conservative politicians and their interests, and this will definitely serve to embolden those beliefs. The Council on National Security and Immigration, mostly composed of former officials from the Trump and George W. Bush administrations, has urged Biden to raise the cap to 62,500 for the rest of this year, and asked him to be “more transparent and forthcoming” with information about the refugee program. Affiliated with Luckbox Magazine, The Prediction Trade (formerly The Political Trade) welcomed back Anthony Scaramucci, who makes a shocking prediction on the fate of New York Gov. It’s going to be hard work.”. The president and Democrats are emphasizing the importance of expanding the government’s safety net during a pandemic and of boosting a nascent economic recovery with massive assistance from Washington. What will be the corporate tax rate for 2022? Prices at 8 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 US Senate election in North Carolina? “I’m coming up with a process that keeps people from tiring out. Affiliated with Luckbox Magazine, The Prediction Trade (formerly The Political Trade) was joined by guest Tasha Kheiriddin to get taken to school on Canada politics. Photo: The Epoch Times / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0, Star Spangled Gamblers podcast: Matt Gaetz’s Sex Scandal and the Derek Chauvin Murder Trial. Traders are pretty sure Biden’s call, again, for Congress to raise the minimum wage to $15-per-hour is a no-go, at least for this year. “If [Tim Scott] catches some buzz he’ll stay with it, because he’s somebody who has never been seen as a Trump lackey, but he’s also not somebody whose been overtly anti-Trump, and I think that would be possibly a long term appeal to keep him into the mix [for 2024].”. Market Pulse: Traders have never had a lot of confidence that DC will be granted statehood status this year. Pat McCrory ® at 23¢. Finally, the third investigation is being conducted by the New York State Assembly, not only into the sexual harassment claims, but also into reports that Cuomo’s administration withheld information on COVID nursing home deaths to make the numbers appear less damning at a time when the governor was being showered with praise for his handling of the pandemic. It’s Friday and here are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on: In an evenly split Senate, 10 is the magic number of Republicans that Democrats need to persuade on any given legislation if they want it to pass without a big filibuster fight. Schmitt was appointed to the attorney general position when Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) was elected to the Senate, and won re-election last year by more than 20 points. “I think with the experience we’ve had with the $1.9 trillion rescue plan, he would like Republicans to vote for his plan. Photo: Senate Democrats / Flickr / CC BY 2.0. Senate Democrats deployed “budget reconciliation” instead of making compromises, or wasting time trying to build a bipartisan bill. A House panel this week heard arguments on two competing proposals on Puerto Rico’s territorial status. DeSantis surpasses former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential nominee market. Twelve of the 34 Senate races on offer in the 2022 midterm elections. Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination? How many Yea votes in the House for the American Rescue Plan? For now, here is a line on which party will retain control in 2022. Change in 2022 House seats 2012-2022 Change in 2020 House seats 2012-22 Ala. AL 7 Alaska AK 1 Ariz. AZ 9 Ark. of Defense / Flickr / CC SA-BY 2.0. South Dakota Gov. Biden went as far as to call them an “un-American law to deny people the right to vote.”. How many refugees will Biden authorize to be admitted in the next fiscal year? In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete the two-term limit for the president, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as “paramount leader” indefinitely. Prices at 6 a.m. EST: How many Senators vote to confirm Deb Haaland as Interior Secretary by March 31? Gavin Newsom (D) mounts his defense as the final signatures for his repeal roll in. Trump is similarly an early factor in the Senate race shaping up in Alabama, with Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) making his announcement at a highly-publicized event on Monday alongside one of Trump’s main spokespeople and closest advisors, Stephen Miller. Last Friday, we launched a market on who will win the runoff election to be mayor of Anchorage, Alaska. The 2022 United States elections will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. The president balanced a look back at the past year by offering a sense of optimism and outlined steps his administration is taking to ramp up vaccine distribution. “And if she does, it’s almost definitely running for governor.” Addressing prior rumors that she would instead take on incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in 2022. The legislation would in theory shift the majority back from conservative to liberal members if Biden were allowed to nominate the new justices. PHOTO: MTA New York City Transit / Marc A. Hermann / Flickr / CC BY 2.0. Democrats have set a goal of getting the bill signed by mid-March, when current stimulus benefits will run out. The bill drew 70% support among adults in a Pew Research Center survey this month, including 41% of Republicans, and it garnered more than 60% support in two polls released Wednesday, by Monmouth University and CNN. This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. It’s Friday and here are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on: The governors of two of our country’s most highly populated states are facing very different crisis, but both raise questions about their political futures. We’ve recently added the following markets on: Total Yea votes in the House for the American Rescue Plan? Read more about Peru’s candidates in Wednesday’s Alternate Forecasts email. Biden has used his criticism of the Georgia law to call for national election reform in Congress that would turn back some of the state’s measures and drastically shift control over elections from states to the federal government. Democrats plan to spend well over $100 million to defend the governor’s seat, making this the biggest election in the nation in 2021. PredictIt markets made the news this week, including: Last Friday, we launched new markets on: If Canada will hold a national parliamentary election in 2021; Senate vote count markets on Wendy Sherman as deputy secretary of state, Vanita Gupta as associate attorney general and Colin Kahl as undersecretary of defense for policy. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is scheduled to speak tonight at the Save America Summit in Miami, Florida, a conference hosted by the pro-Trump organization Women for America First. Market Pulse: There are 34 Senate seats that are up for grabs in 2022, of which 20 are held by Republicans currently. By Adam Brewster, Ed O'Keefe April 11, 2021 / 7:09 AM / CBS News They’ve criticized the price tag of the bill, coming after Congress authorized about $4 trillion in relief last year. “She’s a Trump and that name carries quite a bit of weight in the GOP primary, but we don’t know how much.”. Though, there are still both doing better than Pence whose stock dropped from 8¢ to 7¢ this week. Market Data at 6:30 a.m. EDT: Twelve of the 34 Senate races on offer in the 2022 midterm elections. Market Pulse: DeSantis has remained a solid No. The reasons are not known at this time: everything from North Korean attacks on Japan, a threatened war with South Korea, a naval incident involving North Korean ships and weapons, too many nuclear missiles pointed at the US ... it could be anything. Former Vice President Joe Biden speaking with attendees at the Presidential Gun Sense Forum in Iowa. 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